Using CI to outsmart competitors year-round

Seasonality is a natural factor that affects market dynamics across various sectors, especially in B2B.

Typically, seasonal periods may cause a reduction in the demand for solutions, such as during summer vacations or at the end of the fiscal year, when many companies temporarily suspend new projects. However, there are times when demand increases, such as during budget closing periods, regulatory changes, or economic conditions that drive the need for new solutions or adjustments.

So, where does competitive intelligence fall in all this?

In this article, I’ll share…

What is seasonality and what are its effects on the market?
How does seasonality impact business performance?
The ideal time to prepare for seasonality.
Methods and frameworks to map and analyze seasonality.
Competitive marketing and sales strategies during seasonal periods.
How to gain a competitive advantage in seasonal actions?

What does seasonality mean, and what’s its impact on CI?

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Seasonality can be defined as a predictable variation pattern that affects market demand and behavior throughout the year.

This includes factors such as holidays, climatic seasons, and economic cycles. It also includes unpredictable elements, such as fluctuations in consumer behavior or abrupt changes in the economic landscape.

In terms of competitive intelligence, seasonality directly affects competition in the market:

Many companies adjust their strategies during these periods, resulting in increased competitiveness.
In saturated markets, competition can increase during certain seasonal periods, especially in sectors where purchasing cycles are strongly influenced by specific dates and events.
According to PPCexpo, advertisers tend to increase their bids in paid advertising by up to 2-3 times during peak seasons to secure better conversions and higher returns on investment.
Additionally, during these periods of high demand, demand elasticity may increase compared to low-demand periods, providing an incentive for pricing and promotion strategies.

Seasonality’s impact on revenue, growth, and demand forecast

Seasonality significantly impacts various performance indicators, such as revenue, growth rate, and customer acquisition.

In the technology sector, for example, software companies experience peaks and valleys as demand for new contracts increases towards the end of the fiscal year and declines during the summer.

These fluctuations directly affect the sales cycle, resulting in challenges for customer retention and cash flow management. Furthermore, seasonality influences investment allocation, as companies generally adjust their marketing and expansion budgets according to seasonal demand.

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A study conducted by McKinsey shows that companies aligning their revenue growth management with seasonality tend to increase demand forecast accuracy by up to 13%.

This approach is particularly impactful in industries with strong seasonality, such as consumer goods and airlines, where managing peaks in demand is critical to maintaining profitability. In this way, companies can optimize their resources during peak periods and reduce losses during low-demand periods.

So, not losing revenue to competitors during seasonal periods will make competing easier after those moments.

By learning to capture and retain customers when they are most sensitive to making purchase decisions, you will also gain valuable insights into pricing strategies, promotions, positioning, and communication. Financially, your business will be ahead, allowing you to invest more in growth and prepare for the next seasonal cycle.

When’s the right time to prepare for seasonality?

Investing in a strategy months beforehand is essential.

Why?

To protect a company from competition and maximize opportunities during seasonal periods, preparation must begin well in advance.

However, though there is no ideal lead time for seasonal planning, I suggest 3-6 months.

It is crucial to identify the most challenging months through research methods and calculations, ensuring enough time to plan and execute effective actions. For example, according to MDPI, the effectiveness of demand forecasting models for seasonal products can significantly improve a company's ability to anticipate market needs and optimize supply chain operations. By leveraging accurate demand forecasts, companies can reduce inventory issues and improve operational efficiency during seasonal peaks.

During this period, it is crucial to monitor competitors, watching for signs such as promotions and specific campaigns that indicate the preparation of competitors for the same seasonal cycle.

One useful approach during this process is design thinking, which helps map these trends. Workshops to identify seasonal problems and opportunities, followed by collaborative planning, can generate valuable insights on how to adjust operations in response to competitor movements.

How to predict the effects of seasonality

Alongside your preparation work, various methods can be applied to predict and mitigate the effects of seasonality in combination with competitive intelligence:

Time series analysis and mathematical methods

The Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing Model, multivariate regression, and the Centered Moving Average Method effectively identify seasonal patterns and project future demand based on historical data. These methods make predicting demand variations and adjusting resources in advance to handle seasonal fluctuations easier.

By predicting when seasonal demand will rise or fall, your company can adjust prices, plan the supply of key products, and launch specific marketing campaigns before competitors react.

Competitive intelligence frameworks

You can use frameworks like the Seasonal SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats).

This model allows the mapping of a company's internal strengths and weaknesses and the external threats and opportunities created by seasonal periods.

Adding a competitive bias to the SWOT helps identify how competitors behave during these cycles and where the biggest opportunities to differentiate lie. The Seasonal PESTEL framework (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal) also offers important insights, considering external factors that affect market and competitor behavior in seasonal contexts.

Design thinking

This can also be an effective method for designing seasonal competitive strategies.

Through an empathy and prototyping approach, companies can identify new ways to engage customers during seasonal periods and minimize the impact of competition. Workshops focused on solving specific seasonal cycle challenges, with constant feedback from customers and collaborators, help create agile and adaptable solutions.

Using technologies like AI, marketing tools, and traffic managers (such as Semrush, GA4, SimilarWeb, etc.), or even secondary industry reports, will also provide a solid foundation for your preparation.

Sales and marketing strategies for sustainable growth

During seasonal periods, adjusting sales and marketing processes to maintain operational sustainability is crucial.

Pricing strategies are key for this adjustment.

Seasonal offers with discounts, special packages, or exclusive conditions can encourage purchases during low-demand periods. Marketing promotions, such as themed events, product demonstrations, and webinars focused on specific customer problems, also help capture public attention.

Capturing competitor traffic is another effective tactic.

For example, use Google Ads campaigns focused on seasonal keywords related to your primary competitors. Additionally, reactivating inactive leads in the CRM through email campaigns or promotional incentives can be an efficient way to generate conversions during traditionally slower periods.

Market studies that identify consumer behavior trends are essential.

Propensity analysis allows for the prediction of how customer behavior changes during these cycles and the adjustment of marketing campaigns to meet the needs of these consumers.

Churnkey emphasizes that 45% of customers who receive reactivation campaigns will open subsequent emails, reinforcing the importance of these strategies in increasing engagement and conversions

Therefore, to distance or surpass competitors during seasonal periods, an effective strategy is to adopt exclusive stances, such as:

Exclusive seasonal offers – Creating products or packages specific to seasonal periods. This generates planned scarcity and attracts consumers seeking exclusivity.
Data-based audience segmentation – Using data to segment the audience more precisely during seasonal periods. Salesforce's State of Marketing (2022) report highlights that 77% of ROI comes from segmented, targeted, and triggered campaigns, demonstrating the effectiveness of personalization and segmentation in marketing, especially when combined with data-driven strategies. This can include using CRM to identify customers who previously purchased in seasonal cycles and offering retention or reactivation campaigns.
Competitor response campaigns – Track competitor promotions and actions to launch immediate response campaigns. Using competitive intelligence tools, such as backlink analysis or SEO campaigns focused on competitors' seasonal keywords, can capture traffic that competitors expect to absorb.

To sum up

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Seasonality and competitive intelligence are two sides of the same coin when the goal is to shield against competition and ensure consistent results.

In my experience as a CI specialist, the keyword in this context is: monitor. By doing so, you will be able to understand, plan, predict, and anticipate. Leverage historical and trend data to transform your company’s competitive structure.

Success lies in strategic preparation, robust predictive data and models, and an effective combination of frameworks such as SWOT, PESTEL, and mathematical modeling applied to seasonal cycles.

Integrating methodologies allows sales and marketing operations to be adjusted and adapted collaboratively and agilely, ensuring that the company is always ahead of the competition, regardless of the time of year.

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